WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance are expected to bring significant changes to trucking policies, with a focus on reducing regulations and promoting domestic manufacturing. However, these policies could bring both opportunities and challenges for the trucking industry. Below is an analysis of the top 10 trucking policies likely to be influenced during their administration.
1. Engine Emissions
- Current Standards: The Biden administration’s Phase 3 emissions rules (2027-2032) prioritize battery-electric and hydrogen-electric vehicles.
- Expected Changes: Trump-Vance could adjust these standards to extend compliance timelines, support internal combustion engines, and explore renewable diesel.
- Implications: This approach could lower short-term costs but may slow the transition to cleaner technologies, potentially impacting the industry’s global competitiveness.
2. Speed Limiters
- Current Standards: The FMCSA proposed mandating speed limiters by January 2025.
- Expected Changes: Trump-Vance may delay or rescind the rule, aligning with concerns from owner-operators about safety and competition.
- Implications: Larger fleets may face less resistance, but smaller operators could argue the rule’s removal levels the playing field. Critics worry about the potential for speed differentials on highways leading to safety risks.
3. Autonomous Trucks
- Current Standards: Biden planned to introduce stricter regulations for higher automation levels (4 and 5).
- Expected Changes: Trump-Vance may adopt a more flexible, industry-driven approach to automation.
- Implications: This could encourage faster technological development but may leave gaps in regulatory oversight, potentially affecting safety and public trust.
4. Trade and Tariffs
- Current Standards: Biden maintained tariffs on Chinese goods and expanded duties on green energy imports.
- Expected Changes: Trump-Vance may introduce broad tariffs, including a 60% rate on Chinese imports and baseline tariffs of 10%-20% on all imports.
- Implications: While tariffs could incentivize domestic production, they may also raise costs for imported goods, including truck parts and electronics, potentially increasing operational costs and lowering freight demand.
5. Corporate Taxes
- Current Standards: Biden considered raising corporate taxes to 28%.
- Expected Changes: Trump-Vance may reduce corporate taxes to 15% for domestic manufacturers and repeal the 12% excise tax on heavy trucks.
- Implications: Lower taxes could benefit U.S.-based manufacturers and promote investment in trucking infrastructure, but reduced tax revenue could limit future federal investment in infrastructure projects.
6. Tort Reform
- Current Standards: Biden supported measures that expanded monetary damages in lawsuits involving trucking accidents.
- Expected Changes: Trump-Vance may seek to push such cases into federal courts and support tort reform to limit large verdicts.
- Implications: Limiting excessive lawsuits could reduce costs for trucking companies but may face criticism for restricting compensation to accident victims.
7. Truck Parking
- Current Standards: Biden expanded funding through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA).
- Expected Changes: Trump-Vance may support legislation dedicating significant funds for truck parking expansion.
- Implications: Improving parking infrastructure would enhance driver safety and efficiency, addressing a long-standing industry challenge.
8. Independent Contractors
- Current Standards: Biden-Harris policies made it harder to classify drivers as independent contractors.
- Expected Changes: Trump-Vance may return to a more flexible approach, making it easier for carriers to classify drivers as independent contractors.
- Implications: This could reduce administrative burdens for carriers, but drivers may face increased responsibility for costs like insurance and benefits.
9. Oil Policy
- Current Standards: U.S. crude oil production remains at record highs under Biden.
- Expected Changes: Trump-Vance is likely to prioritize domestic oil drilling to stabilize fuel supply.
- Implications: Expanded drilling may lower diesel prices, but global market dynamics, such as sanctions on oil-producing countries, could offset these benefits.
10. Infrastructure Legislation
- Current Standards: Biden’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill dedicated $110 billion to roads and bridges.
- Expected Changes: Trump-Vance may prioritize highway and bridge expansion while scaling back environmental provisions.
- Implications: While more highway funding could improve freight mobility, scaling back environmental measures may draw criticism and face delays in implementation.
Conclusion
The Trump-Vance administration is expected to champion deregulation and policies aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, potentially easing some burdens on the trucking industry. However, certain policies, such as broad tariffs and slower adoption of clean technologies, could present challenges. The industry will need to navigate these changes carefully, balancing short-term benefits with long-term sustainability and competitiveness.
